Since their takeover in August 2021, the Taliban government in Afghanistan has faced a major challenge.
US President Donald Trump demands Bagram Airbase from them. “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!” he posted on his Truth Social platform. The demand came two days after his press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
As expected, the Taliban swiftly refused. But will they resist or show flexibility? Analysts link the demand to US presence to keep an eye on China or Trump administration’s mineral control policy.
With Pakistan offering US investment opportunities in the mineral sectors of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Washington is likely to seek its own presence to protect its assets and companies. The airbase could also serve as a vantage point to monitor China, as well as movements in Iran and Russia. However, it so far remains unclear why Trump administration is pressing for the handover of Bagram with such urgency.
Importance of Bagram Airbase:
Built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Bagram Airbase has remained under the control of the Soviets, the Northern Alliance, the US, NATO before the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. It has come into the limelight again following the Trump’s latest ambition.
Located about 50 km from Kabul, the airbase can accommodate 10,000 people. It has two runways, bunkers, rooms, restaurants and other facilities.
Many believe the airbase looks completely different when the US invaded Afghanistan and took its control in 2001. Over the next two decades, the US developed it into a secure hub ensuring the protection of NATO forces and smooth operation in the so-called war on terrorism.
They finally withdrew in 2021, reportedly leaving behind weapons worth billions. According to the US Department of Defense, the value of these weapons was estimated at $7 billion — now under Taliban control.
However, Trump’s demand is not about reclaiming the weapons; he wants control over the airbase itself. The Taliban immediately rejected the request, as handing it over could severely challenge their legitimacy. This raises a critical question: what options do they have left?
The Gamble:
Many believe Donald Trump wants Bagram to monitor China, or perhaps regional developments including in Russia and Iran. The station could serve this purpose effectively. China is some 800 km away from the airbase. Analysts also link the demand to the Trump administration’s interest in controlling mineral resources in the region.
Amid unprecedented developments in South Asia, Washington is eager to maintain its presence in the region.
Taliban and China:
Nearly half of Afghanistan’s population, around 40 million people, lives below the poverty line. The economy is crumbling, and the world does not recognize the Taliban’s legitimacy. This demand puts them in a difficult position, forcing them to carefully consider whether to bargain or stand firm on their position.
Another problem is China. Will Beijing allow US presence at Bagram? “First of all, the Taliban will never accept the return to the US… But let’s say the Trump administration could convince the Taliban… the Chinese would come down hard,” Fox News reported quoting Bill Roggio, a defence analyst.
