Pakistan will likely experience a normal winter season with near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures.
Unverified reports and social media content suggesting that Pakistan will experience an “extremely cold winter”. However experts term these reports scientifically unfounded and not supported by current global climate indicators.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), regional and global climate prediction models indicate near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall. Moreover, temperatures will be slightly above normal over most parts of the country. While localised cold spells are likely due to passing western disturbances, no evidence supports an exceptionally severe or record-breaking cold season across Pakistan.
Current oceanic and atmospheric analyses indicate the presence of a weak to moderate La Niña phase over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, La Niña conditions tend to suppress the intensity and frequency of winter weather systems over South and Southwest Asia, including Pakistan.
Consequently, such conditions usually result in fewer and weaker western disturbances reaching the country, reduced rainfall and snowfall activity over the northern and western highlands, and milder temperature anomalies across the plains of Punjab and Sindh.
Therefore, the ongoing La Niña event is expected to moderate the overall intensity of the upcoming winter season, contrary to the unfounded claims of an exceptionally cold or record-breaking winter in Pakistan.
PMD advises the public and media to rely only on official forecasts and bulletins available through its website and verified communication channels. Circulating false information about the weather and climate can cause unnecessary alarm and public confusion.
PMD remains committed to providing scientifically accurate, evidence-based, and timely forecasts in line with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standards for the safety and socio-economic well-being of the nation.
