Pakistan will likely receive above-normal rains during September 2025.
Mean temperatures will likely remain above normal in Pakistan’s northern and western parts.
Rains, Temperatures in August 2025:
Pakistan received above-normal rainfall during August 2025. Three rainfall spells of light to heavy intensity occurred, including a few isolated episodes of very heavy rainfall. These triggered severe urban and flash flooding, particularly in the northern and northeastern areas.
Temperatures remained near normal to slightly above normal across much of the country, with a maximum positive anomaly in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Synoptic Situation:
The state of the global earth system suggests that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a marginally negative phase, is expected to persist in this state during the forecast month.
Similarly, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also likely to continue through September.
Rains in September 2025:
Based on this analysis, overall, a tendency for near-normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most parts of the country. Northeastern Punjab and southeastern Sindh will witness maximum departure. In contrast, the northern parts of the country, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and adjoining areas of Kashmir, are expected to receive below normal rainfall.
Monthly Temperature Outlook:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal over mountainous regions in the northern and western parts of the country. The plain areas of eastern Punjab are expected to experience near-normal temperature during September 2025.
Impacts:
Isolated extreme rainfall events may lead to urban flooding in the first fortnight of September. Although temperatures are decreasing, a short warming episode or an extreme rainfall event may still trigger GLOFs in Northern Pakistan, necessitating vigilant monitoring and disaster preparedness.
Due to the normal to above-normal rainfall, farmers are advised to follow periodic agro-meteorological bulletins. Sufficient availability of water in reservoirs will provide a positive impact on irrigation and power generation. A dengue outbreak due to stagnant water is likely in inundated areas.
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