Below-normal rains and above-normal temperatures are predicted in Pakistan during October 2025.
Past Weather (September):
Rainfall during September showed marked regional variability. Sindh and coastal Balochistan received well above normal rainfall, while the rest of the country received normal to below normal amounts. A heavy rainfall spell from 7 to 10 September particularly impacted Sindh. It triggered urban and flash flooding across much of the province. Meanwhile, temperatures remained near to above normal in most parts of the country, with the highest positive anomaly observed in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Synoptic Situation:
The state of the global earth system suggests that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a marginally negative phase, is expected to persist in this state during October 2025. Similarly, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also likely to continue through October.
October Rains:
Based on this analysis, overall, a tendency for near-normal to below-normal rainfall is anticipated in most parts of Pakistan. The northern half is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, with the highest deficits expected over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Punjab.
In contrast, nearly normal rainfall is expected over the southern half, including most areas of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab.
October Temperatures:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over the eastern parts of Gilgit-Baltistan. Above-normal temperatures are expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab. Moreover, the northwestern parts of Balochistan are likely to experience below normal temperatures during October 2025.
Impacts:
Isolated showers, windstorms and hailstorms may disrupt the harvesting activities of Kharif crops. A warm and humid environment will support the breeding of dengue larvae in the country. A dengue outbreak due to stagnant water is likely in inundated areas.
Above-normal temperatures in upper glaciated regions may increase the risk of GLOF events at vulnerable locations. Lower river flows are likely due to the retreat of monsoon rains and reliance on base flows, possibly stressing irrigation supplies.
A decline in air quality may result in smog formation in the plains of the country, posing health risks for sensitive groups, particularly children and the elderly. Above normal temperatures may affect livestock health and fodder availability in some areas.
